Ongoing Debate
However, beyond a few token mentions in academic circles, Qi Pu’s concept of “regulating both banks” and “narrow channel” management of the Yellow River remains marginalized within mainstream Chinese academia.
Hu Yisan, vice chairman of the YRCC Technical Committee and a proponent of the traditional “wide channel” strategy, told China Science Daily in 2014 that a wider river channel can decrease the average flow of water during an inundation. Meanwhile, a large proportion of silt deposited in the wide channel section can offset silting in narrower channels. “In addition, with a wide floodplain area to contain silt, the speed of the elevation of the riverbed due to sedimentation may slow down, prolonging the river channel’s functional lifespan,” he said.
Liu Guowei, senior engineer with the Nanjing Hydrology Research Institute, also told China Science Daily that the bulk of silt reduction in the Yellow River is the result of human activity the widespread construction of dams to store silt. Within two or three decades, Liu suggested, the storage capacity of many reservoirs may hit their upper limits, and thus the lower reaches of the Yellow River will need more space to change course.
The YRCC has historically leaned towards conservatism when it comes to management strategies for the Yellow River, shunning the implementation of radical measures that could potentially have disastrous consequences. Therefore, consensus is championed, and “rogue” researchers discredited. During a recent telephone interview with NewsChina, Zhao Yong, deputy director of the YRCC, vehemently disagreed with Qi’s opinions, claiming that over 95 percent of YRCC experts share his view.
Xue Songgui, chief engineer and YRCC technical committee chairman, also remarked that it was quite natural for academics to debate solutions to the complex situation of the Yellow River. According to Xue, despite the recent trend towards silt reduction, the long-term situation is hard to predict, yet future approaches to management hinge upon knowing whether there will be more or less sedimentation along the Yellow River in the decades to come.
“With existing domestic technology, even decades of research is not enough for us to obtain a complete understanding of the changing conditions of water and silt [along the Yellow River],” said Xue. “We share a common grounding in some basic facts and the general trend, however opinions on specific management measures vary widely, with some experts even contradicting one another.”
“As far as I know, Qi’s opinion is so far not accepted by the majority of YRCC experts,” Xue added.
Uncertainty
Qi Pu has devoted most of his life to researching the Yellow River, and his strong views have turned him into something of an activist. He has brought his concerns and proposals to national leaders, colleagues and major figures across a range of industries. Even those who don’t agree with Qi have expressed admiration for his somewhat quixotic commitment to a single cause.
A Xingmiao village official surnamed Hao told our reporter that, in the past two decades, the Yellow River has not threatened the village. Instead, he argued, a lack of land has caused severe poverty, making locals eager to use the resettlement plan as an escape hatch. “With moderate compensation from the government, people can at least live in better conditions,” he said.
“Whatever the situation is now, we cannot predict that there won’t be any devastating floods in the future, so, in my view, the resettlement project is crucial so long as the country can afford it,” said Xue Songgui. “When addressing public safety, the worst-case scenario should be considered.”
In late 2014, Qi Pu joined a few other academics, including Qian Zhengying, one of China’s most esteemed hydrologists and former vice chairwoman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, and You Lianyuan of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and National Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, in presenting a letter to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stating their opinion on the current situation of the Yellow River and calling off the “unnecessary” resettlement project that would “waste huge amounts of money.” Different sources informed our reporter that the letter was indeed passed on to the National Development and Reform Committee for “further study and reexamination.”
Yet, whether resettlement will continue unabated remains open to question. While Qi Pu claimed to our reporter that, since his letter was submitted to Li Keqiang, the resettlement project has been halted, we were unable to get official confirmation of this information. At press time, no official response had been forthcoming from the Henan Provincial Development and Reform Commission.
A spokesman surnamed Wang told NewsChina: “The project remains in its trial phase, and it is not certain that it will be promoted in other areas. Nor is there a timeline for the completion of this project.”
